Is Archer-Daniels-Midland a Buy at Its All-Time High?

I have identified the risk-reward for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (NYSE:ADM) very eye-catching for some time now. In addition, the business also has an extremely long dividend advancement streak and boasts a market place-beating yield.

But after hitting an all-time superior, is Archer-Daniels-Midland even now a invest in today? Let’s study the firm’s new quarter and the stock valuation to establish that remedy.

Earnings highlights

Archer-Daniels-Midland documented fourth-quarter and full-calendar year earnings benefits on Jan. 26. For the quarter, earnings grew 10.1% to $18 billion. This was $1.5 billion earlier mentioned Wall Street analysts’ estimates. Modified earnings per share declined 14.8% to $1.21, but was 12 cents better than anticipated.

For the calendar year, revenue fell .5% to $64.4 billion, even though modified earnings per share elevated 10.8% to $3.59, a new history.

All reportable business segments demonstrated running earnings expansion in the fourth quarter.

Agricultural Services and Oilseeds grew almost 13% to $1.1 billion. Ag Providers stays potent, primarily in North America, which benefited from increased global demand, particularly in China. Ag Providers experienced increased export volumes and an improvement in margins. South The united states was decreased 12 months around year, but this is mostly owing to sophisticated revenue in the initial fifty percent of 2020 as international locations accelerated orders as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Crushing business skilled a close to triple in working financial gain as it benefited from higher desire for food and vegetable oils. A reduced worldwide offer of soybeans was also a tailwind. Margins ended up up in all regions. Excluding a retroactive biodiesel tax credit in the fourth quarter of 2019, financial gain for Refined Products and solutions was up yr in excess of year thanks to gains in South American marketplaces.

Working income for the Carbs Options section was 19.5% higher at $208 million. Decreased expenses for corn assisted Starches and Sweeteners improve when compared to the prior year, while corn oil and wet mill ethanol were being both weaker. Vantage Corn Processors proceeds to satisfy demand for large-quality alcohol. Archer-Daniels-Midland has idled two dry mills used for ethanol production, which lowered effects a bit owing to involved preset fees.

Diet was the true star of the quarter as running earnings enhanced 24.5% to $127 million. This marks this segment’s sixth consecutive quarter of at least 20% running gain growth. Human Nutrition experienced better general profits and product combine in the two the North American and Europe, Middle East, Africa and India regions. Flavors was the main catalyst for expansion, but plant proteins, probiotics, pure wellness and diet all carry on to present strength. Animal Nutrition grew in Asia and EMEAI, but faced currency exchange-relevant headwinds in Latin The usa.

Archer-Daniels-Midland ended 2020 with whole property of $49.7 billion, latest assets of $27.3 billion and hard cash and money equivalents of $666 million. This compares to overall liabilities of almost $30 billion and existing liabilities of $18.2 billion. Overall personal debt stands at just over $11 billion, with $2 billion of credit card debt owing in just the future 12 months.

Archer-Daniels-Midland expects to deliver modified earnings for each share expansion in 2021. Consensus estimates get in touch with for $3.85 of adjusted earnings per share for the present year, which would represent a 7.2% improve from last year’s file amount.

The company also amplified its dividend 2.8% for the March 2 distribution, slightly below the 5-12 months compound annual expansion charge of 3.7%. Archer-Daniels-Midland has now elevated its dividend for 46 consecutive yrs, qualifying the firm as a member of the Dividend Aristocrat index. Shares yield 2.6% as of Friday’s shut, a great deal much better than the 1.5% regular produce for the S&P 500 index.

Valuation investigation

Enhancements in the company’s business and lengthy record of dividend expansion had been two merchandise that at first drew my awareness to Archer-Daniels-Midland past 12 months.

The other was valuation. When I very last talked over the foodstuff processing corporation back again in September, I felt the inventory experienced the potential to offer you a mid-one-digit return. Since this time, however, shares are greater by more than 25%.

This has caused the valuation to climb larger. Using the most the latest closing rate of $57.59 and anticipated adjusted earnings for every share for 2021, Archer-Daniels-Midland has a forward value-earnings ratio of 15. This matches the stock’s 10-calendar year common earnings several in accordance to Worth Line.

In addition, shares of the company now trade at a major high quality to its GF Benefit.


Archer-Daniels-Midland has a GF Worth of $45.03, which outcomes in a cost-to-GF Worth of 1.28. This earns the stock a ranking of modestly overvalued from GuruFocus. Returning to the GF Value would end result in a 22% minimize in share price tag, which would erase approximately all of the gains viewed in the identify since early September.

Ultimate thoughts

There is a whole lot to like about Archer-Daniels-Midland. The company’s business continues to prosper, with all major segments publishing expansion in the most latest quarter. Even challenges these kinds of as forex or considerably less need in specified businesses wasn’t enough to offset the main locations of the enterprise.

Archer-Daniels-Midland has an exceptional heritage of returning capital to shareholders by its dividend and the yield is a total proportion level superior than what the marketplace gives.

That said, my predicted attain in share selling price since my final discussion of the enterprise has more than occur to fruition. As substantially as I like the firm, Archer-Daniels-Midland’s valuation is no more time as desirable at it was. Therefore, I am shifting to the sidelines on the stock and now fee it as a keep. On a pullback, the stock could be an fantastic financial commitment for money-seeking buyers.

Disclosure: The creator has no posture in Archer-Daniels-Midland.

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About the creator:

Nathan Parsh

I am initially from the Detroit, Michigan area, ahead of relocating to Maryland to start a occupation as an educator. This is my 15th year instructing. My spouse and I have two younger little ones who retain us on our toes.

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